THE DONKEY VOTE

Can you see where I’m going to go with this?

We haven’t talked about the McClelland speech on here and the reaction to it so I’ll give a quick refresher. Labor’s foreign affairs spokesman Robert McClelland (by the way, was I the only one who didn’t know who this guy was until this came up?) announced in a speech his plan for a regional campaign by Labor if they won government to stop the death penalty that is currently occurring in some countries in Asia. Apparently everyone was up in arms about this, especially the government, and Rudd said the timing of the speech “insensitive”, what with the anniversary of the Bali bombings and all. He then went on to say that a Labor government would only intervene on behalf of Australian citizens facing execution overseas and that the Labor Party’s policy on this was the same as the Liberals (we’re certainly hearing that alot lately).

Apart from the general hypocrisy from both sides that think it’s fine to execute terrorists who kill Australians but not Australians who are arrested overseas and so forth, the whole issue didn’t look very good for Rudd. The interesting question I think is whether this was supported by Rudd when the speech was vetted but he left McClelland hanging out to dry when he saw the reaction. I tend to think his department would have stopped that speech going out if they knew but in politics you never know.

Interestingly enough, I was discussing this issue with one of my pinko, lefty, philosophy student friends and he was absolutely filthy about what happened. I’d imagine quite a few of the lefties would be unhappy with Rudd’s reaction. Of course, I’m not sure this will help Howard a great deal as these people would probably be more likely to clubs seals and eat at McDonalds then vote for Howard. Not that I’m generalising at all.

The Indigenous referendum was an interesting issue. Oh I agree that it’s fairly obvious attempt for currying favour close to an election but it’s a positive step forward, regardless of when it occurs. To be honest, if we didn’t have elections we’d probably never get any hospital or road upgrades. Makes me wish that I lived in a marginal seat to reap some of the benefits for once. But I used to live in Lilley, home of Wayne Swan and although it fell to the Liberals in 1996 they were never going to hold it so we didn’t get millions of dollars in bribe money unfortunately. Oh I got derailed again, where was I?

Labor supported the plan. As has become fairly usual in this pre-campaign. Brad talks about saying sorry and I have no problems with that happening but let’s not talk about the Labor Party as the champion of the indigenous people of Australia when all they’ve offered a similar symbolic gesture. It’s more copying from the Labor Party. Rudd didn’t even really get up in arms about the timing.

Also recently we had the pulp mill in Tasmania where Rudd and probably the greatest sell-out in Australian political history, Peter Garrett, supporting the mill decision by the government. So much for the pro-environment stance by the Labor Party I suppose. Greenies would be burning their Midnight Oil CDs if they weren’t worried about the effect on the ozone layer.

Then there was the reduction in African migrant intake which was supported by Labor but they really showed that they thought differently to Liberals. They questioned the reasons behind it. That showed them… it’ll still happen because Labor support it but they made a difference.

So what am I trying to say?

I’m saying that Rudd has gone for a low-risk strategy after Latham’s spectacular failure last time, much like the difference between the Liberal Party’s high-risk election strategy in 1993 and their more conservative strategy in 1996. But what does that mean exactly?

It means that Rudd will basically run on Howard’s platform, following him every step of the way to avoid wedge politics. It’s a good strategy and it’s working so far but is it abandoning the principles of the Labor Party for the sake of electoral success? I’d argue yes.

But such a policy can work against you too. You don’t show much leadership when you follow a strategy like this which hasn’t worked against the Labor Party and it does hurt the Party faithful when they see that your party doesn’t seem to stand for anything concrete and is just shadowing the ruling regime. Brad talks big but I can’t find anything that the Labor Party is saying that’s very different from what the Liberal Party is saying. It’s all rhetoric.

The real question is whether it will work and at the moment it looks like it just might, I mean it worked for Howard in 1996 and he’s following Howard’s plan both in copying his 1996 electoral strategy and the Liberals’ current policy announcements to the letter. Makes you wonder if you’re just not better off voting Howard anyway, at least you’ll be voting for the slightly more original candidate.

So does anyone think the nickname “Diet-Howard” for Rudd will catch on? I’m willing to copyright it…

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Oh sorry, I fell asleep reading Yak’s last post. It really makes sense why Labor appeals to the youth of the nation.

Just to rub Yak’s smug face in it, I present the latest poll and a welcome one because it presents some interesting data.

Labour still well ahead in latest poll

The poll was conducted in Victoria and New South Wales with Kevin Rudd holding a 10 point margin over John Howard as prefered Prime Minister and Labor holding a 59 point Two Party Prefered ascendency.

It is extremely pleasing to see Labor polling so well in NSW as it is a major battle ground in the Election, we must win NSW but the increase in support in Victoria for the ALP is impressive as it was believed support for Labor in Victoria had reached its zenith.

In a devastating figure for the outgoing Coalition government is the fact that 73% of people ages 18 to 29 Kevin Rudd and Labor to John Howard and the Coalition. 73%!

60% of people aged 30-54 supported Labor over the Liberal and National Party alliance.

It doesn’t surprise me to see support for the Coalition spike in the grey age bracket, full of selfish baby boomers with backward ideals and narrow minds. The Coalition claims this demographic with 51%.

And proving once and for all that men are smarterer than women, 62% of men support Labor and 56% of women support Labor.

Well I guess I haven’t achieved much in this post so far except regurgitating the actual article, sprinkling in some well founded bias and insulting women, our mature population and Yak.

But it gives me a chance to savour another Labor poll victory.

John Howard has travelled to Canberra tonight and it seems absolutely certain that he will call an election tomorrow morning. So if you haven’t enrolled to vote you had better do it! It is just absolutely ridiculous that so many voters are going to be shit out and I think it is a disgrace John Howard changed the rules and even further that people support the move.

The only thing more disgusting is that Sheldon decides to take the most critical week of the campaign to date off to have a holiday! I feel betrayed but I am used to Sheldon betraying me. I will probably meet him on the Maury Povich show one day with his track record.

An Election campaign tomorrow means that I have to live up to my promise to wear a Kevin07 t-shirt every day for the entire length of the campaign.

I can’t believe Sheldon is leaving for SEVEN DAYS! But at least it means I have run of The Donkey Vote until he gets back and the look on his face when he sees what I have been up to will be hilarious.

I’m a big fan of political cartoons and I have been collecting the ones out of the Courier Mail, I’ve spent the evening cutting them out and organising them while watching Back To The Future II, My Name Is Earl, South Park and SKY NEWS. When the Election is called, I will be glued to SKY NEWS, I’m sure they will have a dedicated Election channel.

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Ahh how interesting is it that our good friend Brad has brought up the Morgan Polls, with the recent results indicating that the Liberal Party has been successful in clawing back in some support in the two party preferred system to now site on 42.5% after preferences.Now whilst most people will quickly look at those stats and go ‘Labor still has a comfortable lead, they should easily win’ the really encouraging thing for any Coalition supporter is the growing number of people saying each week that they feel Australia is moving in the right direction.So why would this be an encouraging thing for a Coalition supporter? Simple, the fact that people genuinely do not like change and realistically if things are moving alright why risk it?

In the last five weeks the number of ‘soft ALP’ supporters, those who say Australia is “heading in the right direction” and whilst they would vote for Labor today they are still open minded about the whole scenario, has increased from 17% (or 33% of the Labor support vote) on September 8, to 21.5% (or 43% of the Labor support vote) as of last weekend.

I’m not sure about you, but it does seem to show that people are becoming less and less confident in voting for Labor outright and as history shows when people become less confident about change, they stick with what works.

Which is encouraging, cause there is still plenty to go in this election, and despite what our good friend Brad might want, it’s only going to get tighter!

Anyway enough of the number crunching, the next Coalition post shall be about something with a bit more base, so make sure to return soon!

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Well the latest edition of my favourite Poll, the Morgan Poll has been released, it is my favourite poll because it is the Poll which Labor consistantly has a greater lead compared to other Polls, which to me means it is a more accurate device.

LINK TO LATEST MORGAN POLL

ALP 57.5% (down 3.5%),

COALITION 42.5% (up 3.5%). 

Events that took place during this Poll period.

• Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews announced he was cutting the African refugee intake by almost a third, citing concerns about rising crime, gangs and tensions between African families;

• Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull approved the controversial pulp mill project for northern Tasmania;

• The RBA kept interest rates steady at 6.5%;

• Investigations of drug use surrounded the sudden death of former West Coast Eagles premiership player, Chris Mainwaring; and

• The Federal Government announced plans that if it is re-elected they intend to place the control of the nation’s public hospitals in the hands of individual hospital boards.

I hope this is the end of seeing the polling race tighten, I want an easy, devastating and crushing election victory to Labor. Something I can drawn upon for years to come to replenish my shattered self esteem when even watching Maury Povich loses it’s ability to cheer me up. But I do feel like I am destined to be an involuntary guest on that TV show, I spend a lot of time in my life trying to avoid that seemingly inescapable destiny.

Honestly on election night I will be so stressed. This is the Grand Final of all Grand Finals!

Federal Elections only come along every three years, so this is like four times a Grand Final.

If Labor lose, I have some contingency plans in place. I just hope it doesn’t have to go that far!

WORKERS UNITED, WILL NEVER BE DEFEATED!

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There’s lots to cover and not much time to do it before I’m enjoying my well earned break from the rat race for a week. Of course this week will no doubt involve much political intrigue and slight of hand and opportunities for humour and people flaming me. So I guess it’s not all bad.

About the (now dated) hacking story… I was surprised this got as much press as it did. I mean, it wasn’t even a very creative hacking which is why I assumed that Brad wasn’t involved. I would have expected more pictures of penises for one thing.

I agree with Brad that the election will probably be called this weekend although I’m not sure I agree that Rudd will change to fixed terms because this is what I call an “Opposition Only Policy”. Oppositions will generally put forward policies whereby they’ll change to fixed terms or tighten up government advertising and these end up getting forgotten when the party actually forms government. Of course Rudd may be different but I’m realistic about these kind of things.

About the Vote-A-Matic, the most fun I had was attempting to rig it to get Family First to win. It’s tricky because they don’t, according to the Vote-A-Matic, have alot of policies on certain areas but it is possible. I’ll give a hint for those playing at home, you have to go critical on the family section.

Howard’s announcement about formally recognising indigenous Australians in our constitution is a serious issue which deserves better than me posting about it at 2:30am on little sleep.

It deserves a more midnight timed response.

But seriously, I intend to look at the issue with my usual thoroughness and strict adherence to the facts. And then I’ll probably chuck in a terrible pun at the end. Such is life…

I am a little disappointed that I’ve been replaced by the Yak already before I’ve even left. Seems like a pretty clued up guy though.

Well, for a yak…

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