Brad might want the election to be called instantly, but I’m happy with the delay. Gives us practice writing posts and working out the old bugs in the system. Just like there’s been practice campaigning by both sides. Although I’m hoping there’ll be some embarrassing slip-ups that we can continually make fun of for the entire campaign. Hopefully by Brad. Do you know the tax rate thresholds Brad?
As for my opinion as to how the election will go, I’m still tending to think that Rudd’s lead will slide back a touch as we get into the campaign because he’s currently polling almost record two-party preferred leads and regardless of how well Rudd campaigns I’m not sure it’s possible that he could hold it all the way to polling day. My prediction is a Labor win but the margin could be interesting… could be a blow-out or the Liberals could manage a successful marginal seat strategy and stem the losses. I suppose that’s why elections are interesting, anything can happen (unless you live in Queensland and have to live with a Labor Government for the next forty years).
Brad, and others, have argued that Howard delaying calling the election is harming his chances but to be honest, I’m not sure people outside us political fanatics really care. Australians are incredibly good at zoning out political stuff in the media so I don’t think it’s hurting him as much as calling an election when the Coalition are running that far behind. Of course, one could also argue that some of the poor polling of Howard’s might have something to do with people wanting to see an election called and showing their protest through the polls. Who knows? I’m not Anthony Green.. although that might be why I have a girlfriend too. I reckon he has porn up on his laptop when he’s doing the coverage… “so Anthony, what are the figures showing at Bennelong?” “Just hold on a sec, we’re having some glitches… shit, I hate all these popups. ” No offence Anthony, I love your work.
Oh great, I’m making fun of Anthony Green already. That’s not a good sign.
Anyway, where was I? Ah, election predictions and why people vote the way they do. I tend to think that the current Coalition Government has reached that point in every government’s time in power where people are just looking for a change. If you keep using the same message over and over, eventually people tune out that station and I think that’s what’s happening so far in this not-quite-an-election-yet campaign. Eleven years is a long time.
That reminds me, anyone who watched Question Time after the Coalition first won government will remember the constant references to “Labor’s thirteen years in government” and then explanations about why the system is so rooted. I hope Labor do the same when they get in, it’ll bring back memories…
You know, it’s a definite worry that Brad’s posts are more focused than mine. He’s the king of randomness. I’d better pull my act together.
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